Hostilities in the Middle East economically threaten farms in the Eastern United States

by Jeff Ishee

March 1, 2026 - Farmers across the eastern United States are keeping a close eye on the rapidly expanding conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, worried that rising instability in the Middle East could drive up the cost of essential farm inputs. Their concern centers on energy prices, fertilizer markets, and the shipping routes that tie both to global volatility.

Escalating military strikes and retaliatory attacks have heightened fears of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints for oil, gas, and fertilizer shipments. Roughly 15-20 million barrels of petroleum move through the strait each day, meaning even indirect threats to shipping can push global fuel prices higher. For farmers who rely on diesel for nearly every stage of production, even modest increases can strain already thin margins.

On Sunday, March 1, numerous international wire services reported that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had plummeted over the previous 24 hours. Maersk was one of many shipping companies (including Mediterranean Shipping Company [MSC], Hapag-Lloyd, and CMA CGM) to announce that they are suspending all shipments through the troubled strait.

A recent report from the American Farm Bureau Federation noted that “agricultural producers are especially sensitive to fluctuations in energy markets. Diesel powers nearly every stage of crop production, including tillage, planting, spraying, harvesting, and transportation."

Farmers in Pennsylvania and across the eastern United States faced significantly elevated input costs in 2025, driven by higher prices for fertilizer, fuel, chemicals, and machinery. While exact dollar figures vary by state and operation, federal data shows that the overall index of prices paid for production items remained high throughout 2025, reflecting broad cost pressure across the farm economy.

The Farm Bureau report went on to say that in 2025, it is estimated that U.S. farmers spent “more than $22 billion on energy-related inputs, accounting for over 5% of total production expenses. Even modest increases in fuel prices can significantly alter breakeven margins and strain operational budgets.”

Fertilizer markets are equally exposed. Renewed conflict has already shuttered urea and ammonia plants in Iran, a major global exporter, and disrupted natural gas flows that support fertilizer production in Egypt and Jordan. Analysts warn that as much as 40% of global urea exports could be at risk if instability continues, tightening supplies and driving prices upward for American growers.

In 2024, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Iran ranked as the third, fourth, and fifth-largest exporters of nitrogen fertilizer (primarily urea), together accounting for roughly 25% of global nitrogen exports.

Shipping remains the thread connecting these pressures. Any interruption—whether from military escalation, blockades, or insurance spikes—can ripple through global supply chains, raising costs long before products reach U.S. ports.

For farmers in the U.S. who are preparing for spring planting, the timing could not be worse. Many are already facing economic stress from lower commodity prices and higher operating costs, and a prolonged conflict could deepen those challenges.

As the situation evolves, many producers suggest they’ll be watching global headlines as closely as the weather forecast.