U.S. soybean yields expected to set a new record this fall
October 13, 2026 - USDA’s October 9 crop report projects another strong harvest for both corn and soybeans, with yields rising despite a season marked by uneven weather across the Midwest.
Corn yields are now forecast at 181.2 bushels per acre, up 2.7 bushels from September, pushing production to 16.0 billion bushels, the second‑largest crop on record. Soybeans are projected at a record 53.1 bushels per acre, with total output reaching 4.56 billion bushels. See the complete report here: https://release.nass.usda.gov/reports/crop1026.pdf
Weather played a complicated role in shaping the outlook. Early‑season extreme heat and pockets of heavy rainfall raised concerns about crop stress, but USDA analysts now say the damage was "less severe or less widespread" than expected. Late‑summer conditions allowed many fields to recover, supporting stronger kernel set in corn and pod fill in soybeans.
Sample soybean yield projections include:
Illinois - 68 bpa
Iowa - 63
Ohio - 62
Mississippi - 59
Arkansas - 59
Tennessee - 54
The October projections surprised grain markets, which had anticipated yield cuts following the volatile summer. Instead, USDA’s updated numbers point to "historically large" harvests, adding pressure to corn prices and keeping soybean markets steady.
With harvest season steadily advancing and weather stabilizing, USDA notes that final yields may still shift as more field data arrives, but October’s report underscores the resilience of 2026 crops despite challenging conditions.
Comments