Drought expected to persist through May in many Eastern states

By Jeff Ishee

February 20, 2026 - Drought conditions across several eastern states are now expected to persist at least through the end of May, according to new seasonal outlooks from federal forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The outlook includes an area that stretches from Maine and Vermont to the Carolinas, Georgia, and Florida. The prolonged dryness follows a winter in which many areas saw significantly lower‑than‑normal water resources, leaving rivers, streams, and groundwater levels lower than typical seasonal levels.

Image Credit - NOAA

In the Shenandoah Valley of Virginia, the US Geological Survey reported that groundwater levels dropped 21 feet between July and February. With recent rains and snow melt, the water table has risen a little more than two feet since mid-February, but it is still a long way from normal.

Image credit - US Geological Survey (with modifications by the author of this story)

Agricultural communities from the panhandle of Florida to central Pennsylvania are watching the forecast closely as the spring planting window approaches. March, April, and May are critical months for establishing corn, soybeans, hay, and specialty crops across the Mid‑Atlantic, New England, and Southeast. Without adequate moisture, farmers may face delays in field preparation, reduced germination rates, and higher input costs as they work to manage dry soils.

Some producers say the timing could not be more challenging. Many entered 2026 already under financial strain from high operating expenses and low row crop prices. A dry start to the growing season adds another layer of uncertainty to an already difficult economic landscape.

While conditions could improve if spring brings sustained rainfall, current indicators suggest farmers should prepare for continued stress on water supplies. Cooperative Extension specialists are urging producers to monitor soil moisture closely, adjust planting strategies where possible, and consider conservation measures to stretch limited resources.

For now, the outlook underscores a familiar reality for farmers and rural communities: another season where weather and economics are tightly intertwined, and resilience will be essential.

Cooperative Extension services provide region‑specific, low‑cost strategies for conserving water, adjusting planting plans, and protecting livestock. For example, the University of Maine Extension outlines practical steps for water shortages, monitoring drought status, and securing emergency water supplies. Virginia Tech, Penn State, and other state extensions offer similar drought‑readiness bulletins.