Farms on Eastern Seaboard threatened by winter drought

by Jeff Ishee

January 3, 2026 - The most recent forecast (December 31) from the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center indicates several states along the East Coast may see drought conditions develop or persist between now and the end of March.

Regions that may see a winter drought develop include the Tidewater area of Virginia, a portion of central Florida, eastern North Carolina, and much of eastern and central South Carolina.

Regions that may see drought conditions persist for several more weeks include portions of Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, New England, western North Carolina, Alabama, Georgia, most of Florida, and portions of Tennessee and South Carolina.

The recent forecast is for the period January 1 through March 31, 2026.

A winter drought is one of those quiet, sneaky threats that doesn’t look dramatic on the surface—no wilting cornfields, no cracked soil—but it can set farmers up for a rough growing season before spring even arrives.

Image credit: NOAA NWS Climate Prediction Center

The U.S. Drought Monitor reports that in the Southeast, temperatures were near or above normal across the entire region in late December. The largest temperature departures (+18 degrees F) were observed in parts of Georgia and Alabama, while near-normal temperatures were reported along parts of the Virginia and North Carolina coasts and parts of the Florida Peninsula. Rainfall was mostly below normal across the region the final week of December, with much of the region reporting little to no precipitation.

Precipitation fell across much of the Northeast in late December, though rainfall amounts varied across the region. Heavier amounts (>1.5 inches) were observed across much of New York and in parts of Maine, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, with the greatest weekly rainfall totals (2 to 3 inches) recorded in portions of central and western New York. This above-average rainfall allowed for the reduction of severe drought (D2) in Maine and reduced moderate drought (D1) coverage in New York and West Virginia. Abnormal dryness (D0) also improved in parts of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Conversely, below-normal precipitation resulted in the expansion of moderate drought in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Delaware. Abnormal dryness was expanded in West Virginia and into Rhode Island this week.

Why are eastern farmers concerned about the forecast?

Winter is normally when soils rebuild their moisture reserves because:

• Plants aren’t actively growing.

• Evaporation is low.

• Precipitation soaks in deeply.

When winter is dry, soils entering spring are already in deficit. That means:

• Spring planting starts with “empty tanks.”

• Even normal spring rains may not catch up.

• Early-season crops face stress right out of the gate.

Many small grain crops also suffer during a winter drought, including cover crops, wheat, barley, and rye. If winter is dry, the margin for error shrinks. A short dry spell in May or June could possibly become a crisis instead of a nuisance.

See the current Drought Monitor here >>