Sinking prices cut into Virginia's cotton acreage

Source: Virginia Farm Bureau Federation

WASHINGTON—When Virginia cotton growers faced grim market forecasts and heavy rainfall this planting season, many hedged their bets on more promising crops.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s national cotton production projection dropped 500,000 bales this month to 14 million bales—nearly 3% below last year’s crop. The U.S. cotton yield is expected to be the lowest in four years.

Cotton has been grown in Virginia since before the American Revolutionary War. Image credit - Mark Stebnicki

The USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report indicated a nearly 12% drop in cotton area compared to last season, and extensive rainfall around insurance planting deadlines in various states has likely steepened that decline.

Late spring storms kept many Virginia farmers from planting the rest of their cotton by May 25 to obtain full crop insurance coverage. This includes Southampton County—where 39,200 of the state’s 90,000 acres of harvested cotton in 2024 were grown.

“I’ve talked to a lot of people who didn’t get all the cotton they wanted planted because they ran up against the planting deadline,” said Gary Cross, who represents the region’s farmers on the Virginia Farm Bureau Federation state board of directors and chairs the VFBF Cotton Advisory Committee.

But ongoing market challenges had already driven Cross and other growers to cut back on their cotton acres this year.

“It’s hard to get excited about a crop when you know you’re not going to make any money on it,” Cross remarked.

Currently estimated at 65 cents per pound, weak cotton prices were the “driving factor” for a drop in cotton acreage. Coupled with high production costs, the state’s growers would need a “fairly decent year” to break even, according to Hunter Frame, cotton specialist for Virginia Cooperative Extension.

“I think the biggest challenge for cotton is having a price that’s both relatively stable and profitable,” he noted.

As a cash crop, cotton prices vary rapidly based on competition and consumer spending. And a majority of cotton is exported, converted into garments and sent back to the U.S.

“When oil prices are fairly low and manmade materials like polyesters and nylons are cheaper, cotton has to be cheap to be competitive in the marketplace,” Frame explained. “And when folks don’t have a lot of confidence in markets and are unsure about their disposable incomes, they aren’t buying a lot of clothing or materials made of cotton.”

To maintain farm profitability, Cross—like many cotton growers in the state—dedicated more acres to soybeans. Others pivoted to planting more peanuts or corn.

“You can make some money on beans, so it’s not the worst thing to happen to us,” Cross reflected.

Frame anticipates a 15-20% drop in Virginia’s cotton acres, a sharp increase in soybean acres and a slight uptick in peanut acres in cotton-producing counties this year.

While he doesn’t expect cotton prices to significantly improve in the foreseeable future, he noted that cotton growers are accustomed to having plan B.

“Our growers are very flexible and adaptive to the situation, and I strongly believe that adaptability makes their farming operations more resilient than other production areas around the U.S.,” Frame remarked.

USDA’s Farm Service Agency recently announced an extension to the prevented planting reporting deadline for producers affected by spring flooding, excessive moisture or qualifying drought. Normally, the prevented planting deadline is 15 calendar days after the final planting date of May 25.

Farmers who intended to plant this spring, but were unable due to weather conditions now have until the acreage reporting deadline for the crop claimed as prevented planting, and acreage reporting deadlines vary by county and by crop. Producers are encouraged to contact their local FSA office as soon as possible to make an appointment to report prevented planting acres and submit their spring crop acreage report.