Turkey farmers brace for uptick in HPAI
- Jeff Ishee
- Oct 3
- 2 min read
Updated: Oct 5
Source: American Farm Bureau
by Bernt Nelson
As Thanksgiving draws near, turkey will start making it onto grocery lists across the country. After a quiet summer, Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) is again being detected in turkey flocks in the Upper Midwest. This Market Intel evaluates disease and other issues facing the turkey industry and what consumers can expect as Thanksgiving approaches.
Disease
Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)
HPAI has had a major impact on the turkey industry, affecting about 18.7 million turkeys and accounting for 10% of all birds affected by the virus since 2022. This includes 2.2 million turkeys affected so far in 2025. HPAI detections slowed over the summer months with only seven total detections from June 1 to Sept. 1, affecting 428,280 birds. Fall waterfowl migration season has started, resulting in 15 total detections in North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin poultry flocks this month alone, affecting 3.75 million total birds in September. Turkeys accounted for 606,600, or about 17%, of the birds affected this month. With much of the migration season still ahead, the industry faces the likelihood of additional HPAI cases in the coming weeks.
Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV)
Avian Metapneumovirus (AMPV ) is a highly contagious, viral upper respiratory disease that affects poultry and wild birds. Clinical symptoms include coughing, discharge from nostrils, swollen heads and in later stages, neurological symptoms.
AMPV subtype A and B were detected in the U.S. in January 2024. Prior to 2024, only subtype C was known to be present. After the first detections in January these new subtypes spread rapidly. In less than six months, subtype A or B or both were detected in 26 states and two Canadian provinces.
The National Turkey Federation estimated that AMPV was present in 60-80% of turkey flocks in 2024 and continues to be a problem. AMPV is less lethal than HPAI, but there are no known treatments for this challenging ailment. Affected birds can be treated for any secondary infections caused by AMPV, which may reduce the severity of the disease. One of the greatest impacts of AMPV is a reduction in egg sets for breeders producing the next generation of turkeys to replace losses from HPAI. Breeders face a tough road with the risk of egg-laying birds becoming infected with either HPAI, AMPV or both. Excellent biosecurity, cleaning and downtime between flock placements are the best tools for prevention and control.
Turkeys Raised
With fall disease pressures from HPAI and AMPV intensifying, the overall size of the U.S. turkey flock continues to reflect these challenges. USDA’s Turkeys Raised report contains the number of turkeys raised in the United States, along with historical trends and data for major turkey-producing states for the last two years. The most recent report, released on Sept. 26, estimates that 195 million turkeys were raised in 2025, down 3% from 2024, and down 36% from a peak of about 303 million in 1996. This marks the lowest estimate in 40 years, when 185 million turkeys were raised in 1985, and will lead to higher prices for consumers.
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