New drought forecast getting a lot of attention from farmers in the Eastern US

By Jeff Ishee, On the Farm Radio

Federal climate forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) say parts of the southeastern United States could face persistent drought conditions this spring, raising concerns for agriculture, water supplies, and wildfire risk across the region. Recent outlooks from NOAA indicate that warmer‑than‑normal temperatures and below‑average rainfall are likely from April through June, particularly in Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, the Carolinas, SW Virginia, and Tennessee.

Drought conditions are also likely to persist this spring in portions of New England.

The latest drought forecast is getting a lot of attention from farmers in the Southeastern US. Image Credit - NOAA

Drought conditions should improve in southeastern Pennsylvania, portions of Virginia, Maryland, northern Florida, and eastern North Carolina.

For the past 30-day period, precipitation departures across most of the region ranged from 1 to 4 inches, with the greatest departures observed in southern Alabama, Florida Panhandle, southwestern Georgia, and far western portions of the Carolinas. According to data from the Southeast Regional Climate Center’s Climate Perspectives tool, the past six months (October 1 to March 31) have been very dry across areas of the region, with record dryness observed in the following locations: Tallahassee (-13.51 inch departure); Jacksonville, FL (-9.98 inches); Macon, GA (-11.64 inches); Montgomery, AL (-13.82 inches); Charlotte, NC (-10.67 inches); and Raleigh, NC (-9.23 inches). In terms of average temperatures for the final week of March, above-normal temperatures (5 to 10 °F) were observed across the western portion of the region, while the eastern extent remained near normal.

While winter brought pockets of beneficial rain, much of the Southeast entered spring with soil moisture levels already trending low. Hydrologists note that without steady precipitation, early‑season dryness can quickly expand as temperatures rise, evaporation increases, and vegetation begins to draw more water from the ground.

Farmers are watching the forecast closely as planting ramps up, and state-level officials suggest they are preparing for the possibility of tightening water conditions if the pattern persists. For now, forecasters emphasize that the next several weeks will be critical in determining whether the region slips into a broader spring drought.